Sales Forecast Formula: Build a Capacity-Checked Small-Business Plan

MyBreakEven | Original fictional USD example | 3 November 2026

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Your case

Business / period / source records / assumptions / reviewer / decision / review date

Method and controls

Choose a method that matches the evidence you have

For repeat services, begin with opening customers, expected completed work and known renewals. For a product line, use expected sold units and net unit prices. For a qualified pipeline, sum opportunity value multiplied by a documented close probability for the relevant period. Historical growth can supply a baseline, but unexplained percentage growth is not customer evidence.

Forecast sales = Σ(expected units × net unit price). A weighted pipeline is an expectation across uncertain outcomes, not a promise that a fractional contract will close. Do not add the same sale again when it appears in both a customer schedule and the pipeline.

Build a two-offer month before applying a growth rate

The team has 160 scheduled worker-hours, of which 80% are realistically productive: 128 hours. The base case uses every productive hour. A target of 60 recurring jobs and 12 one-off jobs would need 168 hours, so demand or sales ambition alone cannot support it. Keep worker-hours distinct from elapsed clock hours when several people attend a job.

Full method and limitations